Stories We’re Watching

Sykes-Picot, the Remix: DJ’s Erdogan & Putin Collab on Hot New Beat

Presidents Erdogan and Putin began talks on Syria earlier today. The two are expected to discuss the planned US troop withdrawal and Erdogan’s 30km buffer zone as well as lucrative post-war reconstruction projects. The meeting comes just two days before the NATO-Russia Council meeting. Security analysts point to growing internal tension between NATO members and growing tension between NATO and Russia. Experts warn that recent developments in the Levant–such as the reopening of embassies and the warming to the Assad regime–indicate that larger powers have already begun carving up spheres of influence in the territory.

• War on the Rocks: Kissinger’s Prophecy Fulfilled in Syria
• RFE/RL: Putin, Erdogan Meeting In Moscow For Talks On Syria
• Deutsche Welle: Syria on agenda, Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Putin
• Voice of America: Erdogan Visits Moscow with Looming Turkish Military Op
• Haaretz: In Major Reversal, Arab Nations Warming to Syria’s Assad ICYMI

Amidst Massive Protests, Guiado Declares Himself Venezuela’s Interim President

Earlier today, Juan Guaido, the head of Venezuela’s National Assembly, declared himself interim president as tens of thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets to unseat newly-inaugurated President Nicolas Maduro. Last year’s general elections were widely condemned as illegitimate. Despite having the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela is on the brink of total economic collapse due to fiscal mismanagement of the national budget.  Shortly after Mr. Guaido’s announcement, President Trump publicly recognized his claim, called for Maduro to step down, and vowed US support for the transition. Regional analysts caution that the transfer of power depends on Venezuela’s armed forces, who largely side with Maduro.

• Associated Press: The Latest: Trump recognizes Guaido as Venezuela president
• WSJ: Venezuela, America Stands With You
• Reuters: Venezuela’s opposition takes to streets to seize momentum against
• Bloomberg: Bolsonaro Says Brazil Must Reform or Become Next Venezuela

Iran-Syria-Israel-Russia Caught in ‘Holy Meme War’

Syria and Russia have warned Israel over Monday’s extensive airstrikes, which killed 21 individuals. In a rare move on Sunday, Israel acknowledged striking Iranian targets in Syria. Iran then retaliated by launching a missile at Golan Heights, which Israel intercepted. In retaliation to Iran’s retaliation, Israel launched another strike in Syria, targeting the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and other military facilities. Today, Russia issued a warning to Israel over future ‘arbitrary’ strikes in Syria. Israel’s IDF forces confirmed Monday’s attack by Tweeting a dank meme.

• Haaretz: IDF Trolls Iran on Twitter and Sparks ‘Holy Meme War’
• Voice of America: Tensions Between Israel and Iran Rise Over Syria
• Reuters: Russia says ‘arbitrary’ Israeli air strikes on Syria must stop
• The Guardian: Israeli military strikes Iranian targets inside Syria

There, I fixed it! Russia Reduces Range of Nuclear Missile by 10km, Claims It No Longer Violates INF

Earlier today, Russia unveiled a cruise missile system that the US claims is in violation of the INF Treaty. Russia had previously denied the missile’s existence. But now, according to Russian military officials, this new cruise missile doesn’t possibly violate the INF since it has a 480km range, rather than a 490km one (like the previously disputed 9M728 missile). Regardless of the 10km difference, the US is set to leave the treaty next week. The American withdrawal from the INF Treaty is expected to dominate Friday’s NATO-Russia Council talks.

• Haaretz: Russia, in Effort to Defuse U.S. Nuclear Dispute, Finally Displays New Missile
• Bloomberg: Russia Says It Will Uphold Nuclear Pact Even If US Suspends It
• CBS News: Russia defends new cruise missile that US says violates INF
• Reuters: Germany: Russia needs to stop violating INF so treaty can survive

2019 National Intelligence Strategy & FBI Report Warn of Shutdown’s Effect on National Security

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the 2019 National Intelligence Strategy (NIS) yesterday. The findings are normally published in a public version and in a separate classified version. This is the first year that only one report–a public version–has been published. According to the US intelligence community, among the gravest threats facing the nation are: the democratization of space; increasing urbanization and migration; the “empowerment of groups and individuals”; cyberattacks; and federal budget uncertainty (aka government shutdowns). The FBI also released a report yesterday which details how the government shutdown has impeded law enforcement.

• Lawfare: Document: 2019 National Intelligence Strategy
• Washington Post: 10 sobering quotes from the new National Intelligence
• smallwarsjournal: 2019 National Intelligence Strategy Published Today
• Voice of America: New US Intel Strategy Warns of More ‘Turbulent’ Times Ahead

China Grants Princess Ivanka 5 New Trademarks for Her Defunct Fashion Brand  

Amidst the US-China trade war, China has granted Ivanka Trump preliminary approval on five trademarks for her defunct fashion brand. According to Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), Ivanka still stands to gain from the trademarks since they can be used immediately after leaving office. In the past year alone, China has granted Ivanka Trump 34 different trademarks for things like sunglasses, handbags, jewelry, and—–voting machines.

• CNBC: China urges US to seek ‘win-win’ relationship
• Fortune: Ivanka Trump’s Brand Received Five New Trademarks From China
• South China Morning Post: China insists trade war talks with US are continuing
• CREW: Ivanka Trump’s Business Wins Approval for 16 New Chinese Trademarks Despite Shutting Down

From Deep State Radio

PODCAST: THE RACIST-IN-CHIEF MARKS ANOTHER MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY

Donald Trump has the figure and muscle tone of a baby whale but he moved through the MLK Memorial in Washington on Monday like Usain Bolt.  Traveling with the equally intolerant and odious Mike Pence, the U.S. president was in and out of the memorial in two minutes.  But he went.  Which our own Kori Schake says speaks to the power of norms in our society and is a good thing.  Even better, the rapidly accelerating role for diverse voices in American politics–a trend that gained a big boost with the November elections and another when Cardi B entered the government shutdown debate over the weekend.  Join Kori and guest Joe Cirincione for a discussion of these trends plus–next steps with North Korea on the latest DSR.

EARLY ACCESS
PODCAST: WILL THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BE THE HIGH WATER MARK FOR THE REST OF THE TRUMP YEARS?

If the shutdown in Washington drags on and with it animosity between the political parties grows, will the remainder of Trump’s first term be marked by gridlock in DC…and a president forced to turn overseas to make his mark?  What might that mark be?  Pulling troops out of S. Korea?  Breaking up NATO?  War with Iran?  Kori Schake of IISS, Ed Luce of the Financial Times and Joe Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund discuss these and even worse possibilities.   This is a good one to listen to from your backyard bunker or silo.  Tune in!  Good times!