Stories We’re Watching

Gasp! Another Hidden Ballistic Missile Base Discovered in North Korea

Yesterday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies identified another non-disclosed North Korean ballistic missile base. The base is widely thought to be the strategic missile HQ, and analysts believe that it is one of 20 such undeclared sites. Although President Trump heralded a second US-North Korea Summit later next month, defense analysts have lamented the lack of denuclearization progress since the last summit back in June. They also warn that the discovery could further complicate talks.

• WSJ: The US May Have to Rethink Its Approach to North Korea
• The Straits Times: Sweden hosts ‘constructive’ North Korea talks
• The Guardian: Secret missile HQ uncovered as nuclear summit nears
• CSIS: Undeclared North Korea: The Sino-ri Missile Operating Base and Strategic Force Facilities original report

Davos Updates: Pompeo Says US Not Isolated…from 6,000Km away 

The annual World Economic Forum began in Davos earlier today. Climate change, slowing global growth, and political risks were expected to dominate most of the meeting’s sessions. Political analysts caution that the high rate of dropouts (Trump, Xi, Macron, Merkel, & Modi) underscores increasing levels of global turmoil. Brazil’s newly-elected President Bolsonaro attempted to boost investor confidence in his keynote speech. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a speech via video and addressed growing global populism and US foreign policy.

• Business Day: Far-right Jair Bolsonaro sells ‘new Brazil’ to Davos elite
• CNBC: The super rich at Davos are scared of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
• Financial Times: Davos 2019: What to watch for 
• The Guardian: Davos 2019: Pompeo hails ‘new winds’ like Brexit; Bolsonaro criticised 

Stocks Slide as IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast

US equities fell sharply today following the release of the IMF’s downward revisions for global growth and disappointing data out of China. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director, attributed the revisions to globally high levels of risk involved with Brexit, the US-China trade war, and China’s slowing domestic demand. China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly 30 years. Economists have warned that the US government shutdown is likely to continue to erode consumer confidence.

• WSJ: US Stocks Slide as Economic Concerns Resurface
• CNBC: IMF Chair Christine Lagarde cuts global growth forecast for 2019
• Business Insider: Stocks slide after the IMF cut its forecast for global growth
• International Monetary Fund: A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

Brexit Updates: MPs Reject May’s Brexit Plan B, Germany & France Renew Friendship Treaty

Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May submitted her revised Brexit Plan B. Still at stake is the backstop for the hard Irish border. As per the Good Friday Agreement, there is to be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Today, the EU confirmed that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a hard Irish border and opposition renewed calls for another Brexit referendum. Amidst the Brexit uncertainty, Germany and France warned of nationalism and renewed a friendship treaty aimed at strengthening the EU.

• Deutsche Welle: Merkel and Macron sign Treaty of Aachen to revive EU
• Project Syndicate: Brexit Demands a New British Politics
• BBC: Brexit: MPs put forward rival plans to May’s deal
• Reuters: No Brexit deal means hard Irish border, EU says
• Financial Times: Why Theresa May’s Brexit deal could still pass through parliament

US Demands Russia Destroy Missile ahead of NATO-Russia Meeting, Russia Says: ‘lol. what missile?’

The US has threatened to withdraw from the INF treaty next week if Russia does not remedy alleged treaty violations. Russia has acknowledged having a new missile but has denied that it violates the treaty. Ambassadors for NATO and Russia are set to meet later this week and are expected to discuss the arms treaty as well as developments in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia’s space agency has lost control of its only space telescope, and the US’s new missile policy has been found to rely primarily on unproven technologies.

• Reuters: NATO, Russian ambassadors to meet on Friday
• CNBC: Nuclear instability at levels not seen since Cuban Missile Crisis
• RFE/RL: US Envoy Blasts Russia’s ‘Irresponsible’ Behavior

From Deep State Radio

PODCAST: THE RACIST-IN-CHIEF MARKS ANOTHER MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY

Donald Trump has the figure and muscle tone of a baby whale but he moved through the MLK Memorial in Washington on Monday like Usain Bolt.  Traveling with the equally intolerant and odious Mike Pence, the U.S. president was in and out of the memorial in two minutes.  But he went.  Which our own Kori Schake says speaks to the power of norms in our society and is a good thing.  Even better, the rapidly accelerating role for diverse voices in American politics–a trend that gained a big boost with the November elections and another when Cardi B entered the government shutdown debate over the weekend.  Join Kori and guest Joe Cirincione for a discussion of these trends plus–next steps with North Korea on the latest DSR.

EARLY ACCESS
PODCAST: WILL THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BE THE HIGH WATER MARK FOR THE REST OF THE TRUMP YEARS?

If the shutdown in Washington drags on and with it animosity between the political parties grows, will the remainder of Trump’s first term be marked by gridlock in DC…and a president forced to turn overseas to make his mark?  What might that mark be?  Pulling troops out of S. Korea?  Breaking up NATO?  War with Iran?  Kori Schake of IISS, Ed Luce of the Financial Times and Joe Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund discuss these and even worse possibilities.   This is a good one to listen to from your backyard bunker or silo.  Tune in!  Good times!