The DSR Daily Brief Newsletter – Thursday, April 21, 2022

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Ukraine

The head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church asked Russia to suspend shelling on Orthodox Easter, but is not optimistic. In Orwellian fashion, Russia reportedly accused Ukraine of planning attacks on Ukrainian churches.

The IMF adjusted its global growth outlook to 3.6%, down from 4.4%. Russia’s invasion is named as the primary cause. POTUS reiterated this point.

Raging forest fires in Siberia remain a woefully underreported climate casualty of the war. They are also stoking opposition. Russians in the region have co-opted a pro-war hashtag to express outrage over government inaction. Affected cities include Omsk, home to pro-Navalny protests last year.

The Americas

US oil exports are reaching record highs, as are extractive industry profits. The sale of fraudulent Covid-19 vaccination cards is also profitable in the US, albeit subject to criminal charges. The Federal Reserve ‘broadly signals’ an interest rate hike in May.

Supply chain issues have created a backlog for Brazil’s Embraer jets and higher costs for Lockheed Martin’s F-35s.

Europe and Central Asia

Russia’s chair of the Arctic Council’s Senior Arctic Officials expresses renewed concern about NATO exercises. Putin signs a decree requiring Russian companies to delist from foreign exchanges. That’s bad news for billionaire expats.

No more access to Western social media platforms? Russia has an app for that. In other propaganda news: Russia tries its hand with ‘toxic positivity’ in the absence of actual positive developments, plus whatever this is.

The Indo-Pacific

A survey shows that consumer sentiment in favor of replacing fossil fuels is highest in BRICS ex-Russia. Alas, the war may be hampering India’s green energy plan. 

China pumps the brakes on a planned deal to issue credit cards for Russian banks using UnionPay. This is Interesting insofar as it signals that China may be heeding warnings from the West about subverting sanctions.

The Middle East and Africa

In Iran, historic ‘enmity’ with both Russia and the US poses political challenges. Hardliners are doubling down on ‘whataboutism’ and accusations of ‘fake news’ from the West, while progressive Iranians tend to support Ukraine. 

Experts are calling for an ‘urgent’ revival of JCPOA, but nuclear non-proliferation in Iran feels less urgent in the face of more imminent threats. In any case, Biden is facing pressure from all sides on the terms of the deal. Speculation around Iran’s growing ties with China is muddying the waters.

DSR Exclusives

Tune in to David Rothkopf’s thoughtful conversation with Jay Newman on sanctions, sovereign debt and Russian villains – fictional and otherwise.

Tune in to tomorrow’s podcast for new and evolving stories. 

The DSR Network Team (Chris Cotnoir, Grant Haver, and Katherine Hill)