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Welcome to the Deep State Daily. This newsletter highlights the top news stories that literally no one else is paying attention to. We pull some stories from major news outlets, but we also call attention to niche websites, think-tanks, and media outlets. Enjoy our newsletter? You can easily forward it to a friend by clicking the forward button above. Not already a Member or Insider? Consider supporting us by upgrading your membership.

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From Deep State Radio

PODCAST:  WHAT FOREIGN POLICY SHIFTS MAY FOLLOW A DEM VICTORY IN NOVEMBER?

While the Trump Administration may get much Trumpier with the personnel changes expected after Election Day, a Democratic victory on November 6th that brought them control of the House of Representatives is likely to create a check on Trump’s impulses of a sort he has never had to deal with.  From Russia to the Middle East, the Democrats will be pushing for very different policies and countries that have cozied up to the president perhaps should expect a backlash…one that could get worse in 2020.  Also: A discussion of the influence of foreign money in the Washington Policy community.  Listen

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: LETTER TO THE EDITOR: WHO IS GOING TO LISTEN?

My introduction to foreign policy was the fortunate coincidence that one of my best friends is the son of immigrants. He was born in Oklahoma, but his father was born in Afghanistan and his mother in Pakistan. I learned about the Arab-Israeli conflict through the gallows humor he shared with me about the intifadas.  His mother explained her life in Pakistan to me before she came to the United States.  His father spoke bitterly about how the Taliban was destroying his home.  Read More

1-ON-1 WITH FRED HOCHBERG: THE FUTURE OF TRADE…THERE ARE NO WORDS

If the Democrats win in November, it may mean paralysis in Congress on a wide variety of issues.  But on trade there is what some consider an “unholy” alliance between the far right and the far left in opposition to trade.  When they unite they are a powerful group that shares Donald Trump’s trade skepticism.  What does that mean for trade between now and 2020?  NAFTA 2.0?  China trade war?  Aluminum and steel tariffs?  Autos?  Former Eximbank Chairman Hochberg discusses the outlook, how we got here and what a new trade agenda might look and sound like. Tune in

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Deep State Radio Live at the Comedy Cellar, November 6, 2018 at 9:30 PM.  Click below for more details and to make a reservation.

Deep State Radio Live at the Comedy Cellar

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Stories We’re Watching

Khashoggi Updates: Trump Awaits Results of Saudi’s Internal Investigation

US Secretary of State Pompeo returned from his Riyadh meeting today. On Tuesday he met with members of the Saudi Royal family to discuss the ongoing Khashoggi investigation. Shortly after his meeting Saudi Arabia transferred $100M to the US Department of State. Officials say the funds were approved earlier in the summer for US efforts against Daesh. President Trump has yet to question Saudi’s repeated denials of involvement and has tweeted that he’s awaiting results of their internal investigation. Turkish investigators in Istanbul have tracked down a black van they believe to be involved in Khashoggi’s disappearance and are now searching 2 large forests on the European side of Istanbul.

• Just security: Dispelling Some Myths About Consular Immunity and the Khashoggi Investigation

• Haaretz: Analysis Khashoggi and the Myth of the ‘Liberal’ Middle East Crown Princes

• Middle East Eye: Suspicious Saudi van leads Turkish police to woodland

• The Week: How Trump broke through the moralistic BS of American foreign policy

• Financial Times: A chance for Turkey and America to rebuild ties

POTUS Attempts to Manage Migration Flow with Twitter

The Honduran migrant caravan continues the march to the US border despite President Trump’s increasingly threatening tweets. Earlier this week President Trump threatened to halt foreign aid and ‘all payments’ to Honduras.  Earlier this morning, via Twitter, President Trump (1) accused US Democrats and Central American governments of assaulting the US; (2) threatened to engage the US Military to secure the border; and (3) threatened to close the US border. Experts have cautioned that closing the border would actually stop legal immigration and trade.

• WOLA: Migrant Caravan Highlights Humanitarian Problems in Central America

• The Wall Street Journal: Trump Threatens to ‘Call Up the U.S. Military’ If Mexico Doesn’t Stop Migrants

• Vox: Trump’s latest tweets about the migrant caravan, explained (and debunked)

• The Guardian: Trump threatens to close US-Mexico border over Honduran migrant caravan

• VOA: Honduran Migrant Caravan Marches Toward Mexico (video)

White House Counsel Resigns: One of the Most Powerful Trump Appointees You’ve Probably Never Heard of

White House counsel Don McGahn’s departure was official as of yesterday. Earlier, in August, President Trump tweeted that McGahn would be stepping down after Kavanaugh’s confirmation. McGahn was lead attorney for Trump campaign and the White House, but his most significant role was overseeing the federal judicial selection process–29 appeals court judges, 52 district court judges, and 2 supreme court judges have been appointed to date. McGahn is credited for orchestrating the Kavanaugh confirmation, and his timely exit will allow him to leave the administration on good terms. No new successor has been named.

• NPR: White House Lawyer Quits After Helping Trump Put His Mark On The Federal Bench

• Daily Beast: Don McGahn Officially Leaves White House Counsel Role

• Politico: Don McGahn Leaves Trump With Big Wins — And Big Risks

• Business Insider: Trump’s likely replacement for Don McGahn indicates the White House is preparing to take a more combative approach toward Mueller

Mattis Splashes Out in the Lush Isles of South China Sea

US Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, met with his Chinese counterpart in Singapore earlier today. Among the main topics discussed were the militarization in South China Sea and predatory economic behavior. Vice President Pence’s recent hostile remarks against China are likely to have guided Mattis’s talking points. Mattis’s negotiations were likely affected by speculation over his job security, given President Trump’s comments in an interview earlier this week. Mattis’ itinerary originally included a visit to Beijing, which was canceled earlier this month, over trade and defense issues. Earlier this year Mattis rescinded China’s invitation to a Pacific maritime exercise, and China rejected a request by an American warship for a Hong Kong port visit.

• South China Morning Post: China, US defence chiefs meet on sidelines of Asean meeting in Singapore

• Nikkei Asian Review: Mattis in Vietnam to strengthen ties and counter Beijing’s rise

• Navy Times: Beijing defends warship confrontation in the South China Sea

• Reuters: As tensions mount, Mattis seeks more resilient U.S. ties with China’s military

Deep-fakes Make Twitter Bots Look Like Child’s Play: The Biggest Threat to the Internet That Literally No One is Talking About

Deep-fakes are to videos what photoshop is to photography. Using facial mapping, artificial intelligence, and deep learning, deep-fake technology can be used to create ultra-realistic videos of individuals saying and doing literally anything. The technology has been used in cinema for guest appearances by deceased actors. It’s also been used to have candidates ‘deliver’ campaign messages. Some experts predict that deepfake videos will replace traditional means of disinformation. Defense analysts warn that deepfakes could impact US elections.

• The Wall Street Journal: Deepfake Videos Are Getting Real and That’s a Problem

• Defense One: How Realistic Fake Video Threatens Democracies

• Tech Republic: Why deepfakes are a real threat to elections and society

• Wired: These New Tricks Can Outsmart Deepfake Videos—for Now

China’s Renminbi Falls, Unintentional Says US Treasury Report

China’s currency fell again today, and President Trump has yet to tweet of currency manipulation. Earlier this week the US Treasury currency report declined to label China as a currency manipulator. China’s central bank has recently taken measures to prevent its currency from falling and has increased the interest rate, making borrowing more expensive. A weaker currency would make Chinese imports cheaper for consumers, but it would put upward pressure on prices of domestic goods. This currency fall could exacerbate the trade imbalance between the US and China.

• Inside Trade: Treasury’s currency report does not name China a manipulator; maintains watch list

• Financial Express: China’s Yuan falls to over 21-month low after US currency report, hawkish Fed minutes

• Bloomberg: Trump Is Right About China’s Postal Subsidy

• Market Watch: Here’s how far the U.S. may go in criticizing China’s currency practices