Stories We’re Watching

Khashoggi Updates: Erdogan Reveals his ‘Naked Truth’ to World 

Turkish President Erdogan breaks silence & delivers details on the Khashoggi case amid a wave of Gulf Summit cancellations. President Erdogan called Khashoggi’s murder “premeditated” and insisted that Saudi suspects face justice in Turkey. Among the barrage of CCTV footage recently released, an apparent body double can be seen walking out of the Istanbul consulate. CIA Director Gina Haspel arrived in Turkey today in an effort to contain the mounting international uproar over Saudi Arabia’s dissemblance. Yesterday US Senator Lindsey Graham said that he felt ‘completely betrayed’ by Saudi Arabia over its handling of Khashoggi’s murder. Khashoggi’s remains are said to have been found in the garden of the Saudi consul general’s residence.

• Reuters: How the man behind Khashoggi murder ran the killing via Skype

• Haaretz: Report: Saudi Journalist Khashoggi’s Remains Found

• Politico: Turkish president claims Saudis planned for days to kill Khashoggi

US Begins First Cyber-op Against Russian Fake News Operatives: Fighting lies with…

Last week, the US Department of Justice brought charges against a Russian citizen for conducting a state-sponsored campaign to influence US elections. And now the US Cyber Command is targeting individual Russian operatives by telling them that American operatives have identified them and are tracking their work. This reflects a broader attempt by US enforcement agencies to prevent the spread of disinformation which could interfere in upcoming midterm elections. According to US intelligence officials, Russian efforts to sway US public opinion, sow dissent, ann polarize political parties has become more refined, targeting specific groups of Americans.

• The New York Times: U.S. Begins First Cyberoperation Against Russia Aimed at Protecting Elections

• Kyivpost: Justice Dept. accuses Russians of interfering in midterm

• Axios: NSA, Cyber Command to counter Russian meddling without White House guidance

Global Stocks Drop on Political Tensions and China Worries: China US trade tensions

Wall Street followed global stock markets and opened lower after disappointing quarterly earnings. Financial analysts are citing mounting geopolitical concerns as proximate causes for the overnight plunge in global markets. The Dow’s sharp drop could signals increased industrial turbulence amid worsening China-US trade tensions.

• Market Watch: Dow off more than 300 points after China selloff

• NBC News: Wall Street opens sharply lower as tariffs hit home and global worries mount

• The Street: Stocks Tumble, Dow Futures Plunge as Growth Risks Catch Up

May Says Brexit is 95% Settled, Still Negotiating Northern Ireland ‘Backstop’

The UK has 6 months left in the EU, and yesterday British Prime Minister Theresa May told UK Parliament that the Brexit deal is 95% settled. Still unsettled is the “backstop” issue of Northern Ireland’s border and trade relationship in the EU Customs Union. The terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement require that Northern Ireland have a “frictionless” border with the Republic of Ireland. Although both the EU and the UK recognize this requirement, neither side has reached an agreement on what this “backstop” would look like. ForEx experts are closely watching for clues on the final shape Brexit will take, as some have speculated that it could weaken the pound sterling. A little-covered consequence of Brexit is the fallout for European and British scientific research–many in the scientific community have expressed serious doubts about any agreement saying that a hard brexit could ‘cripple UK science’.

• Evening Standard: Hard Brexit will ‘cripple science’, 29 Nobel Prize winners warn Theresa May

• CNBC: Sterling could certainly tank — but it won’t be due to Brexit

• BBC: Theresa May says 95% of Brexit deal is done

INF treaty violations & US withdrawal

On Saturday President Trump announced US withdrawal from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), an arms control agreement signed 30 years ago by the USSR and the US. The agreement banned both countries from having ground-based missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. Russia was found to be in violation of the treaty in 2014 (and each year since), but the US has done nothing other than “raise concerns with Russia on repeated occasions”.  Meanwhile, China has built up a growing arsenal of intermediate range missiles which has caused considerable alarm in India–a state already alarmed by Pakistan. The INF treaty was hailed for years as an ambitious, successful example of good arms control agreements. To date, the only country that this treaty has constrained has been the US.

• US Dept. of State: 2014 Arms Control Compliance Report (official)

• Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: Chinese nuclear forces, 2018

• CSIS Missile Threat: Dong Feng 21 (DF-21/CSS-5)

Deep State Radio will be Live at the Comedy Cellar in NYC on November 6, 2018 at 9:30.  Join Rosa, David, Max Boot and Others for a night of comedy and analysis of the mid-term election results.

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From Deep State Radio

PODCAST: If Every Teacher Had a Portable Nuclear Weapon There Would Be No More School Shootings

The Khashoggi murder has rocked the Middle East.  The underlying crime was so horrific, its cover-up has been so pathetic and unpersuasive, and the position of the US administration has only compounded the outrage.  The question is: Will this change anything?  Our guests Stephen Walt, Rosa Brooks, Kori Schake and Ed Luce discuss. More Info Here 

PODCAST:  The Hell of Good Intentions…and the Pleasures of Dubious Ones

Harvard’s Stephen Walt has written a timely book called “The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy”…which is just exactly the kind of subject you would expect Rosa Brooks, Kori Schake, and Ed Luce to want to discuss with Steve Walt given the hell of current events and the number of members of the U.S. foreign policy elite they know who are also declining.  Join us for a fascinating discussion about where America went wrong and what, if anything, we can do about it.  Listen Now