Stories We’re Watching

Davos? I don’t know her. Literally Everyone Has Cancelled Their Davos Trip

Yesterday, after grounding House Speaker Pelosi, President Trump canceled the US delegation’s trip to next week’s World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. So far, Presidents Trump, Xi, Putin, and Macron as well as Prime Ministers May and Modi have all canceled their attendance. Among the 3,000+ scheduled attendees, there will be just 3 of the G7 leaders. Participants at Davos are widely expected to discuss ongoing trade disputes and fears over slowing global growth despite this year’s official theme: the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

• World Economic Forum: The Fourth Industrial Revolution will change production forever 
• Voice of America: Gloomy Davos: Plenty of Crises, Few World Leaders
• Fortune: Trump Follows Travel Cancellation for Pelosi With Same for Davos Delegation
• Business Insider: Here are the major world leaders and royals going to Davos

White House Announces Second US-North Korea Summit

The White House has announced that a second US-North Korea summit will take place next month. North Korea’s lead negotiator, Kim Yong Chol, arrived in DC yesterday for a two-day visit aimed at planning the event. Mr. Kim met with Secretary Pompeo and President Trump earlier today and is also expected to meet with the US special representative to North Korea. Inside reports now indicate that the summit is likely to take place in Sweden. Researchers and regional experts have expressed concern over the lack of denuclearization progress made since last year’s summit in Singapore.

• Vice: A second summit between Trump and Kim sounds like a waste of time. Here’s why that could be wrong.
• Bloomberg: North Korea, US May Meet in Stockholm
• Politico: White House says Trump is meeting with North Korean official
• Business Insider: Trump’s new missile defense plan could prep the US for a decapitation strike on North Korea

Mueller Updates: Trump Directed Cohen to Lie to Congress About Russia Dealings

Buzzfeed has published a report which outlines testimony by Michael Cohen that President Trump instructed him to lie to Congress about Moscow Tower negotiations in order to obscure his involvement. Mr. Cohen’s testimony also implicates other members of the Trump family (Ivanka and Donald Jr.) in the cover up. According to the report, President Trump supported a plan to visit Russia prior to the election to meet with Putin. Legal analysts warn that Cohen’s lies are likely to become a national security threat if used for extortion. The report comes as President Trump faces growing skepticism over his involvement with the Russians and widespread disapproval over the US government shutdown–most recently from Cardi B.

• Buzzfeed: President Trump Directed His Attorney Michael Cohen To Lie Congress
• Just Security: Why Trump’s Directing Cohen, Others to Lie Would Be Far Worse Than Watergate
• Wired: If Trump Told Cohen to Lie, Impeachment Is Coming
• The Cut: Of Course Michael Cohen Paid for His Own Thirsty Twitter Account

US Publishes Critical Study of Iraq War & Missile Defense Review

The US army has published a two-volume 1,300+ page critical review of the US war in Iraq. The report took 5 years to write and outlines how the 2011 withdrawal of US troops led to the rise of Daesh. Yesterday, President Trump unveiled the 2019 Missile Defense Review. Defense analysts point to the timing of the report, which outlines North Korea as a major security threat on the same day that  North Korea’s top negotiator arrives in DC. Researchers say that the reaction to both of the documents highlights tensions and disagreements within the US defense establishment.

• US Army War College: The US Army in the Iraq War, Volume I & Volume II
• US Dept. of Defense: 2019 Missile Defense Review
• WSJ: Army Releases a Critical History of the War in Iraq
• All Things Nuclear: US Missile Defense Tests Lack Realistic Decoys
• NPR: Former Top National Security Official Reacts To New Missile Defense
• The Drive: All You Need To Know About The New Missile Defense Review

Colombian Terror Bombing Strikes Bogotá Police Academy, Killing 20+

Yesterday, a car bomb detonated near central Bogota’s Police Academy, killing over 20 individuals–mostly young students. Colombian authorities have attributed the attack to the National Liberation Army (ELN), a rebel group, and have labeled it an act of terror. Regional experts say that the bombing has stoked fears of a return to widespread, random car bombings.

•  Reuters: Death toll from Colombia car bomb rises to 21, police say
• NPR: Deadly Blast At Bogotá Police Academy Stokes Fears Of Return
• The Guardian: Bogotá blast blamed on one-armed bomb expert

DEEPTECH DEEP DIVE: Delete Facebook?

Facebook’s current market cap exceeds the nominal GDP of Morocco, Ukraine, and Finland—combined. And with nearly 2.5 billion users, it has almost as many active users as China and India have citizens. It’s a platform for payment, communication, and even the broker of real estate. It’s a global phenomenon mediated almost entirely by modern consumer technology. And, it’s shaping global policy, whether you ‘like’ it or not. Continue

FP INTERRUPTED: When Do We See Terrorism?

On Tuesday, January 15, militants belonging to Al-Shabaab, a Somali extremist group affiliated with al Qaeda, attacked a hotel and shopping complex in Nairobi, Kenya. Well armed, with AK47s and a suicide vest, they terrorized hundreds, many of whom holed up in bathrooms and offices, for more than 18 hours. Twenty-one people died. Hundreds are wounded. Thousands are traumatized. Yet, somehow this news fell below the fold in the U.S., even with the death of one American — ranking far behind the Brexit rejection. That is alarming. Read more