Foreign Fight Club: The World Is Out of Order

Fight Club is reconsidering its first rule. This week, Foreign Fight Club has put a new twist on “don’t talk about Fight Club,” simplifying it to “don’t talk: fight.”

A year after it scrapped the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the Iran Nuclear Deal, the White House has deployed fighter carriers to the Persian Gulf. “Unspecified threats” from Iran are the so-called reason. In response, the Iranian government said it will stop complying with certain aspects of the 2015 deal. These actions were taken without any dialogue, which is the bedrock of not just diplomacy — but any credible foreign policy.

Yet where there has been dialogue, such as with North Korea and China trade, there hasn’t been any meaningful exchange. Despite Trump’s declarations about Kim Jong Un, his “summit” with the North Korean dictator demonstrated how both the U.S. and North Korea were talking past each other. Trump, desperate for a “deal,” failed to acknowledge that Kim wouldn’t budge on getting rid of nuclear enrichment facilities; that his regime is committed to the nuclear weapon. Fantastical foreign policy. On Thursday, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles.

Trade talks with China spiraled in the same downward trajectory. They seemed to be moving along in a positive direction last week, then, on Wednesday, Trump tweeted that China “broke the deal.” Reaching a deal with China, which involved numerous issues, was always going to be difficult. The country simply operates differently than the U.S., without transparency or accountability. Agreeing to not violate intellectual property, which was one stipulation, and not engage in currency manipulation, as the U.S. demanded, wasn’t something the Chinese were easily going to acquiesce on (let alone enforce) just to get to a deal, as Trump imagined.

Fueling Trump’s imagination is “America first,” his narrow and narcissistic world view that U.S. actions should enrich and benefit the U.S. first. In a different time, that would have worked — and indeed did. In the ashes of the Cold War, the U.S. emerged as the sole superpower, able to call the global shots. In today’s globalized and digital world, however, “America first” unilateralism merely backfires. Having made economic and social gains, most countries are no longer dependent on the U.S. or the West for that matter. Take Turkey, India, and, yes, China. Each is interested in putting its country “first,” throwing what we’ve long known as the liberal world order into a tailspin.

It’s not unreasonable to want America to be “number one.” Given today’s upended world order, however, where U.S. might has eroded, the U.S. would be wise to abandon confrontation and tough talk and opt for diplomacy and dialogue. That’s the only winning approach.

Iran War Games

China & Trade
In the wake of the breakdown of the U.S.-China trade talks, Trump has raised $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. That’s what China gets for trying to “renegotiate” the trade deal. China hasn’t responded yet, but we expect it will. What does all this mean? The ladies below help us try to understand, but one thing will be clear — expect prices to go up.